Why don’t rationalists win more?

The following list comes from a presentation I gave at a Slate Star Codex meetup in 2018.

Possible factors

Thinkers vs. doers: selection effects [1] and a mutually-reinforcing tendency to talk instead of doing [2].
Theoretical models spread without selection [2].
Inability and unwillingness to cooperate [2].
People who are more interested in instrumental rationality leave the community [2].
Focusing on the future leads to a lack of immediate plans [2].
Pessimism due to a focus on problems [1].
Success mostly depends on specific skills, not general rationality [1].
Online communities are fundamentally incapable of increasing instrumental rationality (“a chair about jogging”) [3].