# Why don’t rationalists win more?

The following list comes from a presentation I gave at a Slate Star Codex meetup in 2018.

## Possible factors

- Thinkers vs. doers: selection effects [1] and a mutually-reinforcing tendency to talk instead of doing [2]
- Theoretical models spread without selection [2]
- Inability and unwillingness to cooperate [2]
- People who are more interested in instrumental rationality leave the community [2]
- Focusing on the future leads to a lack of immediate plans [2]
- Pessimism due to a focus on problems [1]
- Success mostly depends on specific skills, not general rationality [1]
- Online communities are fundamentally incapable of increasing instrumental rationality ("a chair about jogging") [3]

## Sources

1. ["Why Don't Rationalists Win?"](https://greaterwrong.com/posts/hgw3mYJnorskJG5RJ/why-don-t-rationalists-win), Adam Zerner (2015)
2. ["The Craft & The Community—A Post-Mortem & Resurrection"](https://greaterwrong.com/posts/wmEcNP3KFEGPZaFJk/the-craft-and-the-community-a-post-mortem-and-resurrection), bendini (2017)
3. ["Self-Improvement or Shiny Distraction: Why Less Wrong is anti-Instrumental Rationality"](https://greaterwrong.com/posts/uFYQaGCRwt3wKtyZP/self-improvement-or-shiny-distraction-why-less-wrong-is-anti), Patri Friedman (2010)

## See also

- [LessWrong discussion](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/esZMgGvDYttB4sjZo/dbohdan-s-shortform#comment-f6xmiiyDcaG9YzWnv)
- <!-- 2009-04-09 -->["Extreme Rationality: It's Not That Great"](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/LgavAYtzFQZKg95WC/extreme-rationality-it-s-not-that-great), Scott Alexander (2009)
- <!-- 2017-08-12 -->["What Is Rationalist Berkeley's Community Culture?"](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/08/12/what-is-rationalist-berkleys-community-culture/), Zvi Mowshowitz (2017)
- <!-- 2018-11-04 -->Scott Alexander's [comment](https://greaterwrong.com/posts/bRGbdG58cJ8RGjS5G/no-really-why-aren-t-rationalists-winning?commentId=CTNA828sLA26q6AAE) on ["No Really, Why Aren't Rationalists Winning?"](https://greaterwrong.com/posts/bRGbdG58cJ8RGjS5G/no-really-why-aren-t-rationalists-winning), Sailor Vulcan (2018)
- <!-- 2019-04-15 -->["Slack Club"](https://www.thelastrationalist.com/slack-club.html), The Last Rationalist (2019)
- <!-- 2019-12-09 -->["Is Rationalist Self-Improvement Real?"](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/8xLtE3BwgegJ7WBbf/is-rationalist-self-improvement-real), Jacob Falkovich (2019)
- <!-- 2020-09-05 -->["Where are All the Successful Rationalists?"](https://applieddivinitystudies.com/2020/09/05/rationality-winning/), Applied Divinity Studies (2020)
- <!-- 2023-07-24 -->["Rationality !== Winning"](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/3GSRhtrs2adzpXcbY/rationality-winning), Raemon (2023)

## Page metadata

URL: <https://dbohdan.com/rationalists-winning.md>

Published 2020-12-25, updated 2025-06-24.

Tags:

- my work
- rationality
- talk