Why don’t rationalists win more?

The following list comes from a presentation I gave at a Slate Star Codex meetup in 2018.

Possible factors

• Thinkers vs. doers: selection effects [1] and a mutually-reinforcing tendency to talk instead of doing [2].
• Theoretical models spread without selection [2].
• Inability and unwillingness to cooperate [2].
• People who are more interested in instrumental rationality leave the community [2].
• Focusing on the future leads to a lack of immediate plans [2].
• Pessimism due to a focus on problems [1].
• Success mostly depends on specific skills, not general rationality [1].
• Online communities are fundamentally incapable of increasing instrumental rationality (“a chair about jogging”) [3].

Sources

1. “Why Don’t Rationalists Win?” Adam Zerner. 2015.
2. “The Craft & The Community—A Post-Mortem & Resurrection”. bendini. 2017.
3. “Self-Improvement or Shiny Distraction: Why Less Wrong is anti-Instrumental Rationality”. Patri Friedman. 2010.

See also

• “What Is Rationalist Berkeley’s Community Culture?”. Zvi Mowshowitz. 2017.
• “Slack Club”. The Last Rationalist. 2019.
• “Where are All the Successful Rationalists?” Applied Divinity Studies. 2020.